Tactical voting could cost Reform seats; Farage could win under first-choice voting, analysis suggests

An Electoral Calculus analysis published today estimates that tactical voting could cost Reform more than 60 seats at the next general election and deprive the party of an overall Commons majority. If voters chose their first-choice party tomorrow, Nigel Farage would head a majority government with 368 MPs. But if voters instead backed the party best placed to block Reform in their local seat, Farage would lose 67 MPs, leaving Reform the largest party but about two dozen seats short of a majority.

The study notes significant numbers of left-leaning and centrist voters willing to back Labour to prevent Reform from winning a clear majority, with about a third of Labour voters in Tory-held English seats prepared to vote Conservative to stop Reform. It also finds support for tactical voting among Greens and Lib Dem voters, but says supporters of Farage's Your Party would not participate in such arrangements.

Jeremy Corbyn and fellow former Labour MP Zarah Sultana have been working to heal a rift that erupted after accusations of a 'sexist boys club' around him. The analysis warned that Corbyn’s presence could inadvertently hand power to Farage, depending on how voters recalibrate their ballots.

Polls cited in the analysis suggested up to 10 percent of voters were considering backing Your Party, though the party had recently endured internal infighting that could affect support.

Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus, told The Times that Farage's party remained ahead in the polls but cautioned it could falter before Election Day. Baxter also noted that slogans such as 'Only Labour can stop Reform' would be widely used as Labour sought to consolidate the centre-left vote.

Under the scenarios, tactical voting could lift Labour’s seat tally by more than 40 seats and boost the Conservatives by about 30, while Lib Dems would probably remain the fourth party in the Commons under a more favorable voting pattern. This fragmentation among opposition forces could complicate Labour’s path to a majority and potentially enable Farage to form a coalition or a looser confidence-and-supply arrangement, depending on local dynamics and the voting mix.

Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey used his party conference to position the Lib Dems as the main anti-Farage vehicle and warned that 'the forces of darkness are working together across the whole world.' Farage, speaking on LBC, dismissed Davey’s comments as obsessive and argued Labour and Greens would not offer a credible alternative to his platform.