The Saudis Send Trump a Warning: Gulf Pact With Pakistan Signals Hedging, Not Abandonment

Leaders from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and other Gulf Cooperation Council partners met President Donald Trump in New York on Tuesday amid deep unease over the region’s security guarantees after the first Israeli airstrike on a Gulf country. The session reflected a broader ledger of anxiety about whether Washington will continue to shield Gulf states from a volatile mix of Iran’s regional influence and Israel’s escalation. The gathering came as Gulf capitals weigh how to recalibrate their security posture in a shifting Middle East.

During the talks, Saudi Arabia announced a mutual defense treaty with Pakistan, a nuclear-armed ally. The move, reportedly inked with little advance notice to Washington, prompted some U.S. observers to view it as a signal that Riyadh is hedging against American protection. Officials and analysts stressed that the pact is not meant to replace U.S. guarantees but to augment them by adding a regional defense layer. The timing underscored a growing belief among Gulf leaders that Washington’s assurances need bolstering with credible, autonomous defenses as tensions in the region rise.

Historically, Gulf leaders have worried about U.S. reliability. The Obama administration negotiated the Iran nuclear deal without broad GCC involvement; Trump’s first term saw Houthi drone and missile strikes on Saudi energy facilities with limited direct U.S. intervention in 2019; and Biden-era tensions persisted as Iran-backed Houthi rebels attacked the United Arab Emirates with drones in 2022. The Israeli strike on Hamas negotiators in Doha has intensified those anxieties, illustrating a regional risk where Washington’s willingness to deter escalation is questioned. The administration has said it could not thwart the attack, a narrative many Arab officials dispute, noting that Israel reportedly provided ample warning before launch.

For Gulf rulers, Israel’s broader moves, including Netanyahu’s public statement that Israel is fighting on seven fronts and steps in southern Lebanon and Syria, along with talk of large-scale changes in the West Bank, are viewed as destabilizing. The Gulf states, while deeply tied to Washington through energy, investment, and defense interests, worry that a unilateral Israeli pivot could redraw the regional balance and complicate any U.S.-led strategy to curb Iran’s influence. In this context, Gulf leaders see a need for credible regional defenses and diversified security arrangements that do not hinge solely on Washington’s willingness or ability to intervene.

Energy and finance ties bind the Gulf to the U.S. economy. The GCC’s energy flows and vast sovereign wealth funds help underpin American competitiveness and the dollar’s reserve status. The United States has long benefited from Gulf partners’ capital and energy leverage, an arrangement that has helped sustain a broad security-for-stability model across the region. It is within this framework that the Saudi-Pakistan pact is being interpreted by some as a reminder that strategic leverage is rarely one-sided. The line between alliance and hedge, observers say, is increasingly blurred as Gulf states assess how to safeguard their interests should U.S. guarantees prove insufficient or inconsistent.

The Saudi–Pakistan defense pact could be read as a warning shot designed to keep Washington engaged rather than a rupture in ties. Washington’s response ahead of a forthcoming visit by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to Washington in November will help determine whether a formal expansion of defense commitments is politically feasible. Some analysts point to models such as the U.S.–Bahrain Comprehensive Security Integration and Prosperity Agreement (C-SIPA), signed in 2023, as a potential blueprint for broader Gulf defense guarantees that extend to protecting allies even when threats originate from actors allied with or beyond Israel. Such steps would require careful diplomacy inside the U.S. and in regional capitals, given the sensitivity around Israel’s security posture and the desire to preserve the Abraham Accords.

Egypt and Turkey, which were also represented at Tuesday’s meeting, share concerns about an Israeli-dominated Middle East order. The pact could become the nucleus for additional Islamic security arrangements, complicating efforts to preserve a cohesive framework under a single American umbrella. If Washington fails to act decisively, the Saudi–Pakistan agreement could encourage parallel security pacts that erode the current balance and challenge the durability of U.S. leadership in the region. The question for Washington remains whether reassurance to Gulf allies can be paired with a strategy to maintain a balance that includes Israel within internationally recognized borders and a stable regional order.

The choice before Washington is stark: reassure America’s Gulf allies and contain Israel within its legitimate borders, or risk watching the regional security architecture unravel. Washington has the leverage of security guarantees, arms sales and decades of security cooperation with Gulf states, but the changing calculus in Riyadh, Abu Dhabi and Doha — reinforced by the Saudi–Pakistan pact — signals that a new, multi-layered approach to regional defense is moving into the center of strategic calculations.