UK to recognize a Palestinian state in shift that roils Middle East policy

London — The United Kingdom is set to recognize a Palestinian state in a policy shift that would mark a major departure from decades of conditioning progress toward a two-state solution on Israeli actions. Sir Keir Starmer is expected to announce the move in a statement on Sunday afternoon, arguing that recognizing statehood would support a durable peace and signal the international community’s renewed push for negotiations. The step comes after Prime Minister Rishi Sunak signaled in July that Britain would adjust its stance in September if Israel met conditions including a ceasefire in Gaza and a commitment to a long-term, sustainable peace deal that advances a two-state outcome. Ministers say the time is right to act, arguing there is a moral responsibility to keep the prospect of a two-state solution alive amid the violence in Gaza and the ongoing expansion of settlements in the occupied West Bank.

The decision, if formally announced, would represent a dramatic shift in British foreign policy, which for years has tied recognition to progress in negotiations rather than unilateral statehood. It comes as humanitarian conditions in Gaza deteriorate and as Israel’s military operation in Gaza City has prompted a new wave of displacement. In recent days, officials have cited images of widespread hunger and destruction as evidence that the current moment demands a reassessment of policy.

Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas welcomed the pledge during a recent meeting with Starmer, with Downing Street stressing that Hamas would have no role in any future governance of Palestine. The prime minister’s allies said the move reflects a principled stance and a belief that recognizing Palestinian statehood can help sustain momentum toward a peace settlement. But the plan drew immediate opposition from a broad array of critics, including Israeli officials and some Conservative lawmakers who warned that recognition now could be interpreted as a reward for terrorism.

In the United States, former President Donald Trump criticized the step during a visit to the United Kingdom, aligning with other critics who argued that recognizing a Palestinian state before hostages are returned and without a robust reconciliation framework could complicate negotiations. Labour, which long argued that statehood should be part of a broader peace process, has faced internal pressure from MPs on the left who have pressed for a clearer long-term commitment to a two-state outcome. A number of Labour backbenchers signed letters in recent weeks urging the government to recognize a Palestinian state, arguing that dedicated international pressure is essential to ending the Gaza crisis and reviving hope for a viable Palestinian homeland.

The decision, if enacted, would follow a pattern seen in other Western capitals. Several European states and peers in the Americas have already recognized a Palestinian state in recent years, arguing that recognition is not a substitute for a peace process but can serve as a diplomatic lever to revitalize talks. Portugal, France, Canada and Australia have taken such steps, while Spain, Ireland and Norway moved in a similar direction last year. Palestine has gained recognition from roughly three-quarters of the United Nations’ 193 member states, though it lacks defined borders, a capital universally recognized by all states, and a standing army.

The two-state framework envisions a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, with East Jerusalem as its capital. Israel currently occupies both the West Bank and Gaza, complicating any immediate formation of a contiguous Palestinian state. Supporters of recognition say it reframes the debate away from incremental measures toward a formal acknowledgement of Palestinian self-determination. Critics, however, contend that recognizing statehood at this juncture could undercut the negotiating process and normalize an outcome without guaranteeing a functioning Palestinian government or a durable ceasefire.

The political debate within Britain has been tightly tied to events on the ground. The Israeli government has described recognition as a reward for terrorism, and some Conservative voices have urged a cautious approach until hostages held by Hamas are released and a ceasefire is achieved. During a recent state visit by a visiting U.S. president, President Trump criticized the move, arguing that it would complicate efforts to secure the release of hostages and a ceasefire in Gaza. In contrast, Justice Secretary David Lammy, who was foreign secretary in July when the path to recognition was first raised, argued that the decision follows concerns about escalating violence and the risk to the viability of a two-state solution due to ongoing settlement activity in the West Bank, including projects such as the controversial E1 corridor.

In the West Bank and Gaza, the humanitarian crisis has intensified. The Gaza Health Ministry, run by Hamas, has reported rising casualties as Israeli operations intensify around Gaza City, with aid agencies warning of a rapidly deteriorating situation. A United Nations commission of inquiry earlier this year concluded that Israel had committed actions amounting to genocide in Gaza, a finding Israel rejected as distorted. Israel has defended its operations as necessary defense against Hamas’s October 7, 2023, attacks that killed more than 1,200 people and abducted hundreds more. As of this week, authorities say that tens of thousands of Palestinians have been displaced in Gaza, while the West Bank has seen ongoing episodes of violence and increased settlement activity that critics say threaten the viability of a contiguous Palestinian state.

The wider international reaction has been mixed. Spain, Ireland and Norway moved to recognize Palestinian statehood in 2023, and other countries, including Portugal, France, Canada and Australia, have followed in various forms. Advocates say recognition strengthens the global norm supporting Palestinian self-determination, while critics warn it could derail negotiations and harden positions on the ground. Palestine itself has expressed gratitude for the solidarity of the international community, with officials arguing that recognition is a legitimate expression of national rights and an essential step toward ending a long period of occupation.

British observers say the timing of the move is as significant as the act itself. The government has argued that the escalation in violence and the expansion of settlements in the West Bank undermine the feasibility of a two-state solution and that a symbolic step of recognition could recalibrate international attention toward a negotiated peace framework. Opponents, however, say that without documentation of a functioning Palestinian government capable of upholding a peaceful transition, recognition risks legitimizing a polity not prepared to assume governance responsibilities.

On the diplomatic front, the United Nations General Assembly is preparing to convene this week to discuss the evolving Middle East crisis and the international community’s approach to the question of Palestinian statehood. Starmer set a deadline in July for Israel to take substantive steps to end the Gaza crisis, including a ceasefire and a commitment to a long-term, sustainable peace that revives the two-state solution. Whether the UK’s move will influence negotiations remains a central question for international observers, given the tinderbox of security, humanitarian, and political stakes involved.

As the UK moves toward recognizing a Palestinian state, the government is expected to provide a detailed framework outlining what recognition will entail, how it will interact with existing peace processes, and what safeguards will be placed to maintain regional stability. Some officials say recognition would be accompanied by a commitment to monitor and respond to developments on the ground, including any steps toward a two-state arrangement that preserves security for Israel while affirming Palestinian self-determination. Others warn that the move could provoke a new round of diplomatic friction in the region, potentially complicating coordination with allies who have urged progress in parallel with a security framework and ceasefire commitments.

The unfolding decision arrives at a moment when families of hostages held by Hamas have urged caution, arguing that recognition without a simultaneous, verifiable path to safe returns risks diverting attention from the immediate humanitarian crisis and the need for a ceasefire. In an open letter released ahead of the announcement, relatives of some of the hostages urged Prime Minister Starmer not to act until the remaining 48 people were released, calling on leaders to prioritize safe return and the protection of civilians. Hamas has celebrated the prospect of recognition in some quarters, complicating international efforts to secure a ceasefire and negotiate a durable peace settlement.

What happens next will depend on the specifics of Britain’s formal recognition, how it is positioned in relation to ongoing peace talks, and how other states respond. The government has signaled that recognition is not a substitute for a political solution, but rather a catalyst for renewed negotiations. The coming days will test whether the British move helps to realign international diplomacy toward a two-state pathway or prompts a reordering of regional alliances and stances as the Gaza crisis deepens.