Ukraine faces new test as Russia steps up drive to seize Donetsk fortress belt

Fall is expected to bring another grueling test for Ukraine’s armed forces as Russia intensifies its campaign to seize an eastern region that has long been Ukraine’s industrial heartland. Moscow now controls about 70% of Donetsk province, and Ukrainian forces have been pushed back to a string of four cities that analysts have dubbed the fortress belt. Those towns have withstood Moscow’s push for years, but shortages of troops, supplies and chaotic management are making resistance harder as fighting intensifies this season.

In the north, Col. Pavlo Yurchuk’s troops in the 63rd Brigade are defending Lyman, a logistics hub on the road to Sloviansk. If Russian forces manage to take Lyman, they could use it to cross the Siverskyi Donets River and advance toward Sloviansk. Yurchuk, however, said he expects the current push will fail. “From a military point of view it looks correct — on the map it looks neat — but after nearly three and a half years of war we all know that such deep maneuvers and wide flanking operations are not Russia’s forte,” he said. “They simply won’t be able to control and supply those penetrations, so I’m sure that they will fail.”

Drones and glide bombs are playing a crucial role, allowing Russia to hit troops and supplies headed for the front and to weaken Ukraine's strongholds without head-on fighting. This summer, Russian forces stepped up attacks at the northern and southern ends of the Donetsk belt. Their strategy, Ukrainian officers say, is to sever supply lines and surround the region’s cities rather than storming them directly.

To skirt the cities, Russian forces are pushing on the flanks and increasingly using infiltration tactics, sending small groups of soldiers through gaps between Ukrainian units. Some of these groups have achieved tactical gains, slipping behind the front line to hide in tree lines or basements, occasionally occupying abandoned positions or cutting off supply routes. But the human cost is heavy: of a five-man unit, Ukrainian commanders estimate, two are usually killed, one is wounded, one goes missing, and only one survives to call for a drone to drop water or medicine. “These are tactical successes, not strategic ones,” Yurchuk said. “This tactic is very slow and does not solve the tasks of encirclement or control of large settlements.”