Ukrainian commander says Russia readies renewed eastern push with about 16,000 troops within days

Maj. Oleh Shyriaiev, commander of Ukraine’s 225th Separate Assault Regiment, told The Post that Russia is surging about 16,000 troops for a renewed offensive in eastern Ukraine that could begin in as little as 10 days. He said in the Pokrovsk direction, Moscow is trying to break through Ukrainian defenses and is gathering reserves for what could become a counteroffensive within the next 10 days.

Pokrovsk sits in the eastern Donetsk region and has become a focal point for Moscow’s drive to seize more of the Donbas. Putin last month demanded that Kyiv cede remaining Donetsk territory as a condition to end the war, a stance dismissed by U.S. and Ukrainian officials as unrealizable. This year Russia has fought on four axes: Sumy in the north, Pokrovsk in the east, and Novopavlivka and Zaporizhzhia in the southeast. Zelensky said in a post on X that the Sumy operation has already failed, with heavy losses of manpower and equipment, and that Russia is left with two operations; he did not name the second, but he emphasized that Moscow has suffered so much manpower that it cannot deliver strong additional actions in the areas mentioned. Shyriaiev, by contrast, said the invasion could begin in 10 days and that renewed Russian effort remains possible.

Shyriaiev recounted that in recent days Ukraine’s forces liberated the village of Pankivka northeast of Pokrovsk, a move that widened a salient and threatened Russian forces that had previously held a narrow thrust near the area. "Our battalion has managed to liberate a village called Pankivka and by that, we have created a threat for the enemy that had previously created a narrow salient," he said. "So we have created a threat of cutting off that salient." He added that timely support from partners—particularly artillery and munitions—would allow Ukraine to respond to any Russian advance. "Without artillery, modern war is impossible," he said, adding that "artillery is important because different types of artillery systems of different calibers allow us to work from at different distances." He cautioned that drones alone cannot cover all fighting needs: "You cannot cover all of the needs of all of the fighting needs with drones, so artillery is not losing its relevance."

The commander noted that Ukraine remains largely self-reliant for drones but still depends on European nations and the United States to supply additional traditional weaponry, including howitzers. He highlighted a broader defense picture in which Western support should come promptly to deter any Russian attempt to push forward. In the same week, Reuters reported that the Pentagon has approved at least two arms packages for Ukraine paid for by NATO partners, though it was unclear what those packages contain or when they would ship, and the Pentagon did not respond to requests for comment.

Zelensky has said publicly that Russia has suffered heavy losses and that its capacity for large-scale offensives is constrained. "The Sumy operation has already failed – Russia suffered heavy losses, especially in manpower, and has redeployed forces to other fronts," Zelensky wrote in a post on X. He also said that, because of manpower losses, “as of now, they lack the strength for large-scale offensives.” Shyriaiev, however, maintained readiness to capitalize on any upcoming Russian move, insisting Ukraine can respond quickly if it receives timely support from partners.

The competing assessments illustrate the fragility of the frontline and Ukraine’s reliance on Western arms to blunt a potential renewed push. Pokrovsk’s strategic location remains a flashpoint as Moscow presses to redraw lines in the Donbas, while Kyiv emphasizes that the conflict could pivot again in coming days if reserves are committed to new offensives. The situation remains fluid, with both sides signaling willingness to adjust to evolving battlefield realities.