Ukrainians cautious after Trump shift on war prospects, while Russia questions gains

Ukrainians reacted cautiously Wednesday to a surprise shift in U.S. President Donald Trump’s stance on their prospects of defeating Russia’s invasion, after he said Ukraine could win the three-year war and retake land captured by Moscow. The remarks came as Kyiv awaited concrete signals from Washington about sustained support and as Russian officials dismissed Trump’s characterization of Russia as a “paper tiger,” arguing that Moscow remains a formidable force. The comments were a marked departure from Trump’s earlier positions on the conflict, which had at times leaned toward a more Russia-friendly posture.

In Kyiv, officials and residents offered a mix of hopeful and wary responses. Kremlin officials’ framing of the battlefield underscored Moscow’s insistence that Ukraine cannot reclaim occupied territory and countered Trump’s characterization. “Russia isn’t a tiger, it’s more associated with a bear,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, adding that there are no “paper bears” and that Russia is a real bear. The exchange highlighted the political turbulence surrounding U.S. policy toward Ukraine even as the war drags on and civilians endure the costs of ongoing fighting.

We spoke with Ukrainians in the capital who expressed guarded optimism about the possibility of stronger U.S. backing translating into real gains on the ground. Olha Voronina, a 66-year-old Kyiv resident, said, “We need such support from America, from Donald Trump, and we hope that this will continue in the future — the same rhetoric, the same attitude toward us, toward Ukraine, and toward the war in Ukraine.” Volodymyr Cheslavskyi, a 48-year-old soldier recovering from a war wound, cautioned that Trump’s words could be empty without steadfast policy, telling The Associated Press that the former president “can say different things each time — he supports Ukraine, or he does not support Ukraine.” Anna Khudimova, 43, said Ukraine’s armed forces could prevail on the battlefield “but we cannot do it without the help of NATO, without the support of Europe,” and that Trump’s influence could be meaningful if it translated into sustained backing.

Ukraine has faced a long-standing conflict since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and a full-scale invasion that began in February 2022. The war persists amid questions about how much international support will endure, especially as U.S. and European policy evolves. In remarks Tuesday at the United Nations and on social media, Trump criticized Russia’s leadership and military prowess, while suggesting NATO countries should shoot down Russian warplanes entering European airspace—a stance that dovetails with a tougher line against Moscow than Trump has sometimes shown in the past. The comments marked a notable departure from his earlier, more ambivalent approach toward Ukraine and toward Russia.

A senior Ukrainian lawmaker said Trump’s latest remarks were unexpected but important, emphasizing that what matters most is whether Washington will honor earlier pledges on sanctions: “What remains important to us is not only Trump’s words, but also whether he fulfills the earlier promises regarding decisive sanctions on Russia,” Oleksandr Merezhko, the chairman of the Ukrainian Parliament’s Committee on Foreign Policy and Interparliamentary Cooperation, told the AP.

Beyond political rhetoric, the two nations have been advancing concrete ties. The United States and Ukraine signed an agreement earlier this year granting Washington access to Ukraine’s critical minerals and other natural resources, with another accord reportedly in the works focused on joint weapons production. Ukraine’s Ambassador to the United States, Olha Stefanishyna, said a Ukrainian delegation is due in Washington next week for talks on this collaboration, particularly around drone manufacturing, an area where Kyiv has been at the forefront of innovation and battlefield-tested technology.

Zelenskyy and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov were slated to address the United Nations General Assembly later Wednesday, underscoring the global audience for the evolving diplomacy surrounding the war. Trump, for his part, said on social media that with time, patience, and Europe’s and NATO’s financial support, a path back to the borders where the war began could be an option. The comments were reported as part of a broader push to recalibrate the international coalition against Moscow.

The United States’ reaction to Trump’s remarks has been measured, with lawmakers and analysts watching to see whether his words translate into tangible policy moves, including sanctions and security assistance. In Moscow, state media framed the shift as part of a broader European burden, while Peskov argued that Trump’s critique of Moscow’s aims did not accord with what many Russians perceive as a sustained effort to ensure Russia’s security and interests amid a war they say was forced by Western neglect of Russia’s concerns. Dmitry Medvedev, a former president and current deputy head of Russia’s Security Council, dismissed Trump’s comments as an “alternative reality” and warned that the tycoon could change his stance again.

The evolving discourse reveals how a single shift in U.S. political rhetoric can influence Kyiv’s expectations and the calculus of Ukraine’s partners in Washington, Europe, and beyond. Kyiv’s leadership continues to balance the urgency of urgent military and economic support with the prudence of managing an unpredictable foreign-policy landscape. As Zelenskyy and his aides pursue new frameworks for weapons production and strategic supply lines, Ukrainians remain focused on the practical question of whether promises will be matched by steady, predictable action that can sustain their push to defend their territory and reclaim lands affected by Russia’s aggression. The war’s outcome remains uncertain, and Kyiv’s government says it will measure any shift in U.S. stance against the benchmarks of real sanctions, sustained military aid, and tangible steps toward cooperation on defense production.