UN snapback deadline nears as Iran faces renewed pressure over its nuclear program

A 30-day window to reimpose United Nations sanctions on Iran is closing, potentially deepening pressure on Tehran’s economy as tensions widen in the Middle East amid the Israel-Hamas war. With the U.N. General Assembly meeting underway in New York, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi have a final chance to stop the snapback from taking effect.

The clock began when France, Germany and the United Kingdom on Aug. 28 declared Iran was not complying with its 2015 nuclear deal with world powers. Tehran contends the agreement was voided by the United States’ unilateral withdrawal in 2018. Since then Iran has sharply narrowed inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N. watchdog, especially after a 12-day confrontation with Israel in June that included U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. "A solution, if it exists, is only a diplomatic one. We hope to achieve that during our negotiations in the upcoming days," Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi told state television, adding, "Otherwise Iran will take the necessary action." Araghchi also met with IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi, who has faced threats that prompted Austrian police protection.

The so-called snapback process, designed to be veto-proof at the U.N. Security Council, could take effect 30 days after parties to the 2015 nuclear deal inform the Security Council that Iran is not complying. It would once again freeze Iranian assets abroad, halt arms deals with Tehran and penalize changes to Iran’s ballistic-missile program, among other measures. The window to trigger the mechanism expires Oct. 18, a deadline likely prompting European powers to act before losing this tool. After that, any sanctions effort would face a veto from China and Russia, which have provided political and economic support to Tehran in the past. China remains a major purchaser of Iranian crude, while Russia has relied on Iranian drones in its war in Ukraine.

Iran has long insisted its nuclear program is peaceful, but its officials have increasingly warned they could pursue a weapon if national security demands require. Tehran now enriches uranium to near-weapons-grade levels, a capability unmatched by any other country that does not possess a weapons program. Under the original 2015 agreement, Iran was allowed to enrich up to 3.67% purity and to maintain a stockpile of 300 kilograms (661 pounds). The IAEA reported Iran’s stockpile just before the war at 9,874.9 kilograms (21,770.4 pounds), with 440.9 kilograms (972 pounds) enriched up to 60%. That level would be a short hop away from weapons-grade material, should Iran choose to produce it.

U.S. intelligence agencies assess that Iran has not yet begun a weapons program but has undertaken activities that better position it to produce a nuclear device if it chooses. Iran’s Natanz facility, located about 220 kilometers (135 miles) southeast of Tehran, is the country’s main enrichment site and had been targeted by Israeli airstrikes when the United States attacked it in June. Uranium had been enriched to as high as 60% purity at Natanz before the strike, a level only a short step from weapons-grade, according to the IAEA. A separate section of Natanz on Iran’s Central Plateau is underground to withstand airstrikes and operates multiple cascades, groups of centrifuges that accelerate enrichment. The IAEA has said it believes most, if not all, of these centrifuges were destroyed or damaged by the Israeli strike that cut power to the site. The United States also deployed bunker-busting bombs on the site.

Iran’s other prominent facilities include the Fordo enrichment site, about 100 kilometers (60 miles) southwest of Tehran, which also faced bombardment, and the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center. The Arak heavy-water reactor, long a focal point of concern for potential plutonium production, was another target of Israeli activity. The interlinked pressure from sanctions, regional conflict and a shifting diplomatic landscape keeps the global nuclear question centered on whether Tehran will curb or capitalize on the current vulnerability rather than escalate further.

The broader context remains shaped by the 2018 U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA under the Trump administration and subsequent pushes-and-pulls among Tehran’s rivals and partners. The Gaza war has intensified regional volatility, complicating U.N. efforts to manage expectations around Iran’s nuclear program and the response to any snapback measures. As diplomats monitor the clock, Tehran’s leadership has signaled it will evaluate its next steps based on diplomatic openings and the evolving posture of the Security Council, particularly given the likely veto risk from China and Russia if sanctions move forward.

Associated Press reporting included in this dispatch notes the high-stakes diplomacy unfolding as the General Assembly convenes, with Iran invoking the broader political context to argue for a negotiated resolution rather than punitive penalties. The situation remains fluid, with no immediate resolution in sight as negotiators weigh economic and security considerations in the shadow of a wider regional conflict.