Victoria crime rates hit decade-high as bail crackdown shows mixed results

Victoria's crime rate surged to a decade high in the year ended June 30, according to new state data, even as Premier Jacinta Allan's government pushes a tougher bail regime. The 12 months ended June 30 recorded 483,583 criminal incidents in the state, up 18.3% from the previous year and well above population growth. Crimes per 100,000 Victorians rose to 6,814, a 16.3% increase since 2024 and the highest level in more than a decade.

On March 28, the government introduced what ministers described as the toughest bail laws in the country, designed to keep repeat offenders behind bars longer and more often. Police Minister Anthony Carbines said the department had not yet fully measured the laws' impact, but argued they were working as intended by increasing remands. He cited a 46% rise in adults losing bail privileges and a 26% rise for young people since the changes took effect. Carbines said more changes were planned to strengthen the regime, with the aim of reducing reoffending over time.

Even with higher bail denials, the overall crime rate continued to outpace the reforms' immediate impact. The data show the number of alleged offenders rising, with the only age group showing a net decline being those aged 10 to 17. Children accounted for 12.8% of offenders processed, but were disproportionately represented in serious and violent crimes such as robberies (62.2%), aggravated burglaries (47.7%) and car theft (26.4%). Victoria Police told Sky News that 1,128 child offenders aged 10 to 17 were arrested a combined 7,118 times, with total arrests up 26.7% from the previous year; there were 149 fewer child offenders in the period, indicating that repeat offending was driving the arrest numbers.

Geographically, the five areas reporting the largest increases since 2024 included the City of Melbourne, Port Phillip/Yarra, La Trobe and Mildura, with increases ranging from roughly 5.5% to 19.1%. The most pronounced rises in crime type were theft from a motor vehicle (up 39.4% to 86,351), motor vehicle theft (up 43.1%), breaches of family violence orders (up 16.7%), theft from a retail store (up 27.6%), and offences involving weapons (up 11.5%). Police said about 11,000 edged weapons were seized in the 12 months.

Police Minister Carbines said the bail reforms would bear fruit in the long run, as repeat offenders face more serious consequences. The Allan government has characterized the laws as the toughest in the country, while critics say the focus on bail alone has not stemmed the crime wave, prompting questions about what else the government will do to curb violence and theft.