Welsh Labour accused of manipulating NHS waiting figures ahead of Senedd election

The Welsh government began publishing provisional NHS waiting times data about a month earlier than the official Statistics, a move that critics say is aimed at presenting a better picture ahead of the Senedd election in May. Health Secretary Jeremy Miles had set targets to cut the overall waiting list by 200,000 and to eliminate two-year waits by the end of March 2026, a goal that officials say could not be officially confirmed under the previous system due to data lags. Officials emphasise that official statistics carry a seven-week delay, while NHS management information can offer a more timely gauge of performance.

The decision to publish provisional figures has drawn sharp rebukes from opponents who argue the change amounts to electioneering. James Evans, the Welsh Conservative health spokesman, said the government should be issuing actual statistics rather than provisional figures ahead of a Senedd election, warning it could make the government look better and suggesting it is aimed at political gain. Plaid Cymru health spokesman Mabon ap Gwynfor called the move a deliberate attempt to skew the picture before polls, arguing that it will do nothing to improve patient outcomes or cut long waits.

In a government statement, officials insisted there is public interest in NHS waiting times and that official statistics lag by about seven weeks. They said publishing provisional data enables transparent communication of progress against Welsh government commitments and allows scrutiny of both NHS performance and government effectiveness. BBC Wales has reported that decisions on statistics are taken independently by the Welsh government’s chief statistician, though the health secretary has previously asked statisticians to explore whether more timely NHS data could be released transparently.

The controversy comes as waiting times in Wales are expected to be a major battleground in next year’s election, amid broader debate about the Welsh government’s record after more than two decades in power and competing reform proposals from Reform and the Liberal Democrats. Beyond numbers, the data have real consequences for people whose lives hinge on timely treatment.

One such person is Stephen Pitcher, a retired geography teacher from Ystalyfera in Neath Port Talbot, who marked his 70th birthday on a recent trip to Lithuania for a hip replacement after being told he would face a minimum three-year NHS wait. He used inheritance money to pay about £7,500 for private surgery arranged within weeks, rather than endure a long NHS wait. Pitcher described the decision as life-changing, saying the cost was far less than a second-hand car and that the choice was made “in a split second.” He acknowledged that while he does not blame the NHS staff who care for patients, he criticized politicians and funders for the extended delays, noting that his experience would not be possible for everyone.

The Pitcher case underscores why waiting lists remain a painful and personal issue for voters and why officials say timely data is important for accountability. Yet it also highlights the tensions between using provisional data to illustrate progress and the commitment by opposition parties to ensure that such data does not become a tool for political advantage.

As the election approaches, the debate over NHS waiting times in Wales will likely sharpen questions about funding, service delivery, and the pace of reforms promised by Labour and rival parties. The Welsh government contends that making provisional metrics accessible enhances transparency and allows for quicker scrutiny of how well targets are being pursued, while critics warn that the timing of the data release risks shaping public perception before full, official verification.

The outcome of this dispute may influence not only the political fortunes of Welsh Labour but also the broader public understanding of how health services are managed and measured in Wales. With patients continuing to confront lengthy waits and limited access to certain treatments, the core issue remains how best to balance timely data releases with the need for stable, audited statistics that accurately reflect system performance.