World: UK Labour faces electoral peril as Reform surge looms ahead of conference

Keir Starmer opened the Labour Party conference in Liverpool amid polling that suggests Reform UK could win a commanding majority at the next election, while Labour’s parliamentary strength would shrink sharply. More in Common’s model, based on a 20,000-person poll using MRP analysis, estimated that Nigel Farage’s insurgent movement would win 373 seats if an election were held now, leaving Labour with about 90 seats and the Conservatives in fourth place behind the Liberal Democrats. Ipsos Mori’s latest survey put Starmer’s personal rating at minus 66, the lowest for a prime minister in comparable records dating back to 1977. Starmer said he believes Labour can pull this round.

Amid whispers that Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham could attempt a Westminster return to challenge him, Starmer urged Labour to stop ‘navel-gazing’ and focus on the fight ahead. He argued the country needs unity and said there was no time for introspection as the party confronts voters’ concerns about affordability and public services. The polling paints a stark picture: the MRP projection shows Farage’s Reform as the largest group in the Commons but short of a majority, with Labour clinging to urban and university towns as the Tories fall to fourth place behind the Lib Dems. The forecasts echo earlier YouGov data released last week that pointed to Reform being the biggest party while still short of an outright majority.

More in Common’s separate polling on Labour’s record in government suggests that focusing attack on Reform is not resonating with voters. About 62% said Labour should concentrate on its own policy agenda, while 20% want Labour to scrutinise Reform more closely. The poll also noted that Labour’s leadership departures, including Angela Rayner and Lord Mandelson, have weighed on public perception, while some voters still see policy achievements in housing and public services as potential anchors. Starmer argued that delivering on promises, such as a wave of housebuilding, is essential to stem the flow of voters toward Reform.

Housing policy remained a focal point: the Housing Secretary, Steve Reed, pledged that three new towns would begin before the next election — Tempsford in Bedfordshire, Leeds South Bank, and Crews Hill in north London — as part of a broader plan to develop a total of 12 new towns. The three sites were described as the most promising for early work, with ministers saying the program is designed to demonstrate Labour’s ability to deliver tangible change in housing.

Migration and borders were another large theme at the conference. Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood said that if Labour does not secure tighter border controls, divisions in the country could deepen. She promised reforms to migration law, including tougher rules for people entitled to stay in the UK and a tighter link between indefinite leave to remain and broader contributions to communities. Mahmood told the Sun on Sunday that legal migration is welcome but must serve wider societal needs, and she signalled reforms to human rights laws by Christmas to make deportations simpler where appropriate. She argued the European Convention on Human Rights has been used in ways not originally intended and stressed that securing the border is fundamental to holding the country together, warning that the far right is a dangerous moment for the country.

Starmer arrived at the conference with his wife Victoria yesterday as Labour faced the dual tasks of defending a record in government and responding to the fresh polling pressure bearing down on the party leadership. The mood inside the room reflected a party wrestling with identity, strategy, and the best path to regain broad appeal ahead of the next election. The incoming policy notes and the intensity of the debate underscored the tension between pushing reformist agendas and addressing the immediate economic anxieties that the polling shows are driving voters toward Reform, even as Labour argues that it can still govern effectively if it can reconnect with the public and deliver on its promises.

The broader global context adds pressure to the conference narrative. With populist and reformist movements gaining traction in various democracies, Labour’s challenge is to demonstrate a credible path to governance, balancing policy ambitions with the realities of a volatile electorate. The polling results released during the conference will shape internal debates and test Labour’s ability to present a unified message that resonates beyond its traditional urban bases, as the party seeks to transition from opposition to credible government ahead of an electoral test that could redefine Britain’s political landscape.